Kamala Harris and the 2024 Election: Can Allan Lichtman’s Model Predict Another Presidential Victory?

Thus, the renowned historian Allan Lichtman has made the controversial statement go viral, asserting that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election. Having such a history, Lichtman is a relevant figure in the study of elections—he has effectively applied his "13 Keys to the White House" model in the past with a success rate of nine out of ten accurate predictions, confirming his status. Harris, who is emerging as a popular candidate, is even managing to create a niche in those traditionally crucial battleground states, increasing the accuracy of Lichtman's prediction. This blog attempts to demystify Lichtman's framework, the conditions that are favorable to Harris's performance, as well as the potentialities of her fulfilling her future aspiration of becoming the president in 2024. It also includes views from Wall Street to the university.

Lichtman's Model Explained: The "13 Keys to the White House"

Lichtman's model was crafted in the eighties, and it is not traditional polling or forecasting but an alternative concept. Moreover, it is based on 13 major leads that touch upon political reality, the state of society, and the carousal of the incumbent party. These "13 Keys" include factors like economic performance and social unrest, and the outcome of these "keys" determines whether the incumbent party will stay in power or the opposite happens.

So, what does the model say? If 6 or more keys are opposite, i.e., the negative ones are more than the positive ones, the opposition, in any case, wins. It looks at broader patterns and avoids focusing on individual personalities, so theoretically, it should be able to predict elections for the next century. The use of the model offered the analytical advantage of incorporating unpredictable features such as Donald Trump's surge in the 2016 election. The reliability of these election predictions has enabled Lichtman to become an analyst whose predictions are viewed as one of the most widely approved in political analysis.

Speaking of the one to come, by Lichtman, as most of these keys in 2024 stand for Kamala Harris, he still has unclear poll results about her. Still, why?

Harris’s Eight (8) Key Advantages

Lichtman has enumerated eight circumstances in Harris's favor that cause his prognosis of her being victorious. These factors include:

1. Economic Growth: In spite of the global economical obstacles, the growth of the U.S. economy has increased over the years, and inflation has started to stabilize. Economic issues may vary, and there may very well not be a recession in 2024, which benefits Harris.
2. Legislative Successes: The Biden-Harris government accepted and enacted a number of major policies, including infrastructure spending, green projects as well as pandemic rescue strategies. Those are some achievements that build up their image as a functioning government, and they thence get an advantage as the incumbent party.
3. Incumbency: Being in the office for almost a whole term, Vice President Harris is privileged to grab the incumbent effect. In the past, candidates with the backing of the incumbents had a comparative advantage, thus they could rely on the platform and the political structure already existing.
4. No Significant Third-Party Challenge: Harris is predominantly the favored choice in the model since there isn't a primary third-party contender who would trigger a diversion of voters, as had been the case in the elections of 1992.
5. Lack of Major Scandals: Contrary to what has happened during some past administrations, the Biden-Harris presidency has been able to remain free of major controversies that could have served to hinder a candidacy for the president, a matter of concern for the stability of Harris's position.
6. Social Unrest: Political and social unrest are still in existence, but the circumstances are different from the unrest can't at the time of 2020, which made the incumbent administration look weak.
7. Policy Change: The administration has introduced major policy amendments, which encompass the promotion of healthcare, the environment, and the economy in line with Democratic doctrine and voter preferences.
8. Foreign Policy: The attainment of a major foreign policy disaster or outbreak of war, which could worsen Harris's situation indicated in Lichtman's model, is additional evidence for her favorability.

These aspects, Lichtman explains, are mighty enough to give Harris a head start even with the typical ebb and flow of political campaigns.

Battleground States and Shifting Polls

At the beginning of 2023, the officer in some states was the front runner in the Bryan Poll, but later, Harris landed on the threshold in the swing states such as North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia. These territories, which are very went keeping an electoral college slate, had an increase in the Democratic representation mainly due to the demographic changes and the voter outreach programs they performed.

The blue shift in battleground states is soon known to be a big change, and nearly all of the Democratic candidates for the House are expected to win. Nowadays, candidates can move up or down based on issues like campaign strategy, economic shifts, or emerging issues. Therefore, the votes that she snatched in these states are genuine votes that are barely affected by the fact that Donald's level is lower or higher than hers. As Lichtman has suggested, Harris was able to reach out to some unlikely voters, which is the reason why she managed to gain more support in these states.

Some notable issues that confront a candidate like the Electoral College, which gives great weight to specified states, remain a challenge, but the surprising thing is that Harris's recent victories suggest that her campaign is still a tough competitor, even if the national polls are not always accurate.

Vice Presidents Running for the Presidency: Historical Context

Throughout history, vice presidents have had various experiences when they ran for the top job. Two of the most recent examples were George H.W. Bush, who inherited the presidency from Ronald Reagan in 1988, and Al Gore, who won the popular vote but was defeated in the electoral college in 2000. Vice presidential posts are official positions of public power, such as a whistle and a wheel at the same time, which means that as a number two man, one can share the successes of the administration but also has to bear the brunt of its failures.

Kamala Harris, as a vice president, is, in a way, the beneficiary of the incumbent's advantage, but the challenges she has to deal with are hers alone. Her presidential bid would be a historic moment as she would be the first woman of color to run for president from a major political party. In contrast, vice presidents are mostly the targets of criticism, mainly on their personal skills. The campaigns could turn around this issue.

Factors That Might Affect the Prediction

Even though the Lightman model is very reliable there are several other factors that could influence the election in such a way that even 13 keys do not cover it fully:

1. Crises in the Economy: The economy has always been a central element in presidential elections. Sudden economic downturns, inflation surges or a stock market collapse are but a few examples of the many unforeseen events that can occur.
2. Foreign Affairs: If a major international conflict or a foreign policy debacle takes place, the incumbent administration would have its credibility tarnished and the keys linked to foreign policy and military success would be changed.
3. Physical Condition of the Candidates: The health of the candidates will most probably be among the most discussed topics. The plusses that Biden's opponents will bring hear are usually the relatively elder candidates, one female and a possibly less experienced candidate. Both can bring in the advantage of good health with the other health advantage.
4. Revealing Scandals: Even though Harris does not have any major scandals connected to her name, uncertain revelations can appear during election campaigns, which may have the effect of influencing public perception.
5. Number of the Voters: Among other things, election turnout is still of vital importance. Usually, the Democrats are benefiting from high numbers while the Republicans suffer from low turnout. Mobilizing the most critical voter blocks might be the critical factor in achieving an advantage.

US Economy & GDP - WallStreet & University

Goldman Sachs predicts that if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election, the U.S. economy could see moderate growth driven by increased government spending on infrastructure, clean energy, and social programs, which could stimulate job creation and consumer spending. However, they also caution that tax policies under a Harris administration may introduce challenges for higher-income earners and corporations.

The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania adds that a Harris presidency could lead to long-term GDP growth, particularly through investments in innovation and education. They note that her policies on climate change and technology could enhance productivity in emerging sectors, although the economic impact will depend on how successfully these policies are implemented.

Wall Street has some divergent views on what a Kamala Harris presidency might be like, and economic analysts express hope and concern. It is widely held that her proposed investments in infrastructure, clean energy, and technology will be beneficial for renewable energy, IT, and construction, and that, as a result, the sectors will grow. On the other hand, the work of some companies and the unpredictability of the market due to tax increments to the high-income individuals and the corporations are also matters of concern.

Meanwhile, people who specialize in finance on Wall Street are also of the view that if regulatory changes under a Harris administration occur, especially in the Health care and Tech sectors, these could lead to confusion for both local and foreign investors. The fear is real, still, a good portion of enthusiasts hold that the reallocation of public resources to the development of product and app creation will give birth to new productive and the idea of an in-between policy execution that promises both corporate gains and tax policies is feasible.

Consequences of a Harris Victory

Under a Kamala Harris presidency, America would soar ahead as a political awakening power in the world. Harris will create history as she will be the first female and the first woman of color to be elected to office.

This feat is sure to encourage a new generation of women political leaders that one day will be standing in the shoes of the 46th president (or at least be a part of her executive team).

Harris' domestic policy will most probably adopt measures that the previous administration of Joe Biden started. The main focus will be on climate change, health care, and infrastructure development along with tackling other existing problems in the country. The administrations would, however, have to endure enormous pressure to get done with such hot topics as income inequality social justice, and immigration.

More precisely, a Harris administration would be expected to place a great focus on bonds strengthening as well as the continuation of the U.S. leadership in global challenges such as climate change and global security. The foreign policy of Harris would probably be characterized by the strategy employed by President Joe Biden, who has put the accent on multilateralism and re-establishing the allied relationships.

In short, Sharon Otterman's Kamala Harris win in 2024 can be regarded as an intriguing forecast of the political culture of the time to come. Though there are many other factors in the background of the prediction, the model stated by Lichtman and the strengths of Harris bear evidence of her powerful status in what assures to be an exciting election. Whether Lichtman's method will be valid once again in the 2024 election or not, it is too early to say, but it is certainly bringing an extra charm to the presidential race.